Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (9.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.2% in games he has played).
The Cleveland Browns defense has had the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing 5.06 yards-per-carry.
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-worst group of DTs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the worst QBs in the NFL at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a measly 0.33 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 7th percentile.