Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2024

Updated Dec 8, 2024 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 259.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 252.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 259.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 60.1 plays per game.
Tua Tagovailoa has attempted 35.1 passes per game this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile among QBs.
Tua Tagovailoa is positioned as one of the best passers in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 273.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.
Tua Tagovailoa's throwing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 69.6% to 74.7%.
With an outstanding 7.84 adjusted yards-per-target (79th percentile) this year, Tua Tagovailoa has been as one of the best per-play passers in the league.

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the Dolphins being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.
The Dolphins rank as the 9th-least pass-centric team in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 57.9% pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the Jets defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.
This year, the daunting Jets defense has allowed a mere 200.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 3rd-fewest in football.

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