Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 278.5 (-130/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (63.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
The projections expect Tua Tagovailoa to throw 36.3 passes this week, on average: the 10th-most among all QBs.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for substantially more adjusted yards per game (296.0) this season than he did last season (253.0).
Tua Tagovailoa's 71.4% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a significant gain in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.0% figure.
Tua Tagovailoa is positioned as one of the best per-play quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 9.05 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The New England Patriots defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.62 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-fewest in football.

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