Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 286.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 285.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 286.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.2% pass rate.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for many more adjusted yards per game (338.0) this season than he did last season (253.0).
Tua Tagovailoa's 71.8% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a a significant gain in his passing accuracy over last year's 64.0% mark.
Tua Tagovailoa's 9.95 adjusted yards-per-target this year indicates a a noteworthy boost in his passing effectiveness over last year's 8.2% figure.
The Giants cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst group of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a giant 13-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 10th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 218.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the New York Giants defense this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in the NFL versus the New York Giants defense since the start of last season (67.9% Adjusted Completion%).

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