Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 288.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 287.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 288.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Tua Tagovailoa has passed for many more adjusted yards per game (292.0) this year than he did last year (253.0).
Tua Tagovailoa's 70.3% Adjusted Completion% this season shows an impressive growth in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.0% rate.
Tua Tagovailoa comes in as one of the most efficient QBs in the league this year, averaging a fantastic 8.75 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 96th percentile.
This year, the feeble Tennessee Titans defense has conceded a monstrous 75.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the worst rate in the NFL.
This year, the weak Titans defense has yielded the most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing squads: a staggering 8.55 yards.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a huge 13.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Dolphins as the 3rd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see just 127.4 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.
The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.8 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) generally cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher rush volume.

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