Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 248.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 250.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 248.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
Tua Tagovailoa's 302.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year indicates an impressive boost in his passing skills over last year's 253.0 mark.
Tua Tagovailoa's throwing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.0% to 69.9%.
With a stellar 8.73 adjusted yards-per-target (97th percentile) this year, Tua Tagovailoa rates among the most effective passers in the league.
The Jets defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.19 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are expected by the predictive model to run just 64.0 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Jets, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.2 per game) this year.
This year, the stout Jets defense has surrendered the 2nd-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing offenses: a meager 6.6 yards.

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