Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 260.5 (-103/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 268.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 260.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 37.4 passes in this game, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the top QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 254.0 yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 8th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 4th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.1 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Opposing QBs have thrown for the least yards in the league (just 188.0 per game) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season.

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