Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 260.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 260.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 260.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for substantially more yards per game (265.0) this season than he did last season (204.0).
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the most accurate QBs in the NFL this year with a terrific 70.2% Completion%, ranking in the 94th percentile.
Tua Tagovailoa's throwing effectiveness has been refined this year, compiling 8.56 yards-per-target compared to just 6.84 mark last year.
The Chicago Bears defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 33.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-least of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.

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