Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 250.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 253.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 250.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Tua Tagovailoa has passed for many more yards per game (239.0) this season than he did last season (204.0).
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the most on-target passers in the NFL this year with an impressive 69.3% Completion%, ranking in the 94th percentile.
Tua Tagovailoa's pass-game effectiveness has gotten better this season, notching 8.33 yards-per-target compared to a mere 6.84 rate last season.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 57.0 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the 8th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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