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Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 272.5 (-117/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 259.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 272.5 @ -117.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.

Tua Tagovailoa's passing accuracy has improved this year, with his Completion% increasing from 67.4% to 72.1%.

Tua Tagovailoa's throwing efficiency has gotten a boost this season, notching 8.02 yards-per-target vs just 6.84 figure last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.

The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Opposing offenses have thrown for the least yards in the NFL (just 179.0 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.

More Tua Tagovailoa Player Props

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