Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 254.5 (-105/-126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 248.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 254.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins rank as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 70.9% pass rate.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the best precision passers in the NFL since the start of last season with an impressive 67.6% Completion%, checking in at the 84th percentile.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the most yards in football (282.0 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 33.7 passes in this game, on average: the least of all QBs.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.