Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 275.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 273.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 275.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 66.5% pass rate.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for a lot more yards per game (255.0) this year than he did last year (204.0).
Tua Tagovailoa's throwing effectiveness has gotten better this year, totaling 8.15 yards-per-target compared to a measly 6.82 rate last year.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in football against the Green Bay Packers defense this year (74.1%).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a big 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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