Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 290.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 283.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 290.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 39.2 passes this week, on average: the 6th-most of all quarterbacks.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for many more yards per game (273.0) this year than he did last year (204.0).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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