Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 269.5 (-104/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 272.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 269.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Dolphins are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Tua Tagovailoa has passed for significantly more yards per game (276.0) this season than he did last season (204.0).
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the best precision passers in football this year with a stellar 69.0% Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 10th-least yards in football (just 219.0 per game) vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, allowing 7.20 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in the league.

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