Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 275.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 286.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 275.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Tua Tagovailoa has passed for a lot more yards per game (275.0) this season than he did last season (204.0).
Tua Tagovailoa's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.4% to 70.7%.
Tua Tagovailoa's throwing efficiency has gotten a boost this year, averaging 8.87 yards-per-target compared to a measly 6.84 mark last year.
The Houston Texans pass defense has shown bad efficiency this year, yielding 8.28 yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the NFL.
The Houston Texans defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 7.02 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in football.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.

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