Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Passing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 283.5 (-123/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 268.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 283.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 37.4 passes this week, on average: the 9th-most of all QBs.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for quite a few more yards per game (273.0) this year than he did last year (204.0).
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the most on-target passers in the NFL this year with a stellar 70.3% Completion%, ranking in the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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