Tua Tagovailoa Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Pass Attempts

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-100/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -107 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Dolphins are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.6% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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