Tua Tagovailoa Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Interceptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 29, 2022 11:40 PM EST

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-160/+120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season.
The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.