Tua Tagovailoa Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Interceptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-160/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 38.5 passes this week, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Tua Tagovailoa has thrown just 0.47 interceptions per game this year, ranking in the 76th percentile among quarterbacks.
The Buffalo Bills have intercepted 0.90 passes per game this year, ranking as the 6th-best defense in the NFL by this metric.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

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