Tua Tagovailoa Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Completions

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Tua Tagovailoa's 70.1% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a substantial growth in his passing accuracy over last year's 64.0% mark.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the Dolphins are a massive favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Dolphins have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 23-mph being projected in this game) generally mean worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased run volume.

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