Tua Tagovailoa Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Completions

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Tua Tagovailoa's 70.3% Adjusted Completion% this season shows an impressive growth in his throwing accuracy over last season's 64.0% rate.
This year, the feeble Tennessee Titans defense has conceded a monstrous 75.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the worst rate in the NFL.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Tennessee's unit has been very bad this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a huge 13.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Dolphins as the 3rd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see just 127.4 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.
The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.8 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) generally cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher rush volume.

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