Tua Tagovailoa Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Completions

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate.
The Commanders defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.1 per game) this year.
Tua Tagovailoa's 70.0% Adjusted Completion% this season shows an impressive gain in his throwing precision over last season's 64.0% figure.
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Washington's unit has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in football.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a giant 8.5-point favorite in this game.
The model projects the Dolphins to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Dolphins this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).

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