Tua Tagovailoa Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Completions

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
Tua Tagovailoa's throwing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.0% to 69.9%.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are expected by the predictive model to run just 64.0 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Jets, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.2 per game) this year.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, New York's CB corps has been outstanding this year, grading out as the best in the league.

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