Tua Tagovailoa Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Completions

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-108/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.
Tua Tagovailoa has been among the most accurate QBs in the NFL this year with a terrific 70.2% Completion%, ranking in the 94th percentile.
The Chicago Bears defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 33.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-least of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.

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