Tua Tagovailoa Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 17, 2024 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Dolphins being an enormous 8-point favorite this week.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to run on 46.2% of their downs: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
The 6th-most plays in football have been run by the Miami Dolphins this year (a staggering 60.1 per game on average).

Favors Under

The model projects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Las Vegas defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.