Tua Tagovailoa Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs Denver Broncos · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM EST

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Denver Broncos safeties rank as the 28th-worst unit in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 11th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 40.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to earn 2.7 carries this week, on average: the 5th-least of all QBs.

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