Tua Tagovailoa Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 3:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-160/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 7-point advantage, the Dolphins are a massive favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
Windy weather conditions (like the 23-mph being projected in this game) generally mean worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased run volume.
While Tua Tagovailoa has received 7.3% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Miami's running game in this game at 12.9%.
The Miami O-line grades out as the 7th-best in the league last year at blocking for the run game.

Favors Under

Right now, the 10th-least run-focused offense in the NFL (36.5% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Dolphins have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, New York's LB corps has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 6th-best in football.

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