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Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa Carries
Player Prop Week 12

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Tua Tagovailoa Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -160.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
  • When talking about run support (and the influence it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins profiles as the 7th-best in the league last year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Right now, the 6th-least run-oriented offense in football (35.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Dolphins.
  • Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are expected by the predictive model to run just 64.0 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • The Miami Dolphins have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
  • Tua Tagovailoa has averaged a measly 1.7 rush attempts per game this year, one of the smallest rates in the NFL when it comes to QBs (24th percentile).
  • When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, New York's collection of LBs has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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