Tua Tagovailoa Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tua Tagovailoa

NFL · Player Props

Tua Tagovailoa

QB · Miami Dolphins

Carries

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Tua Tagovailoa Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
When talking about run support (and the influence it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Dolphins profiles as the 7th-best in the league last year.

Favors Under

Right now, the 6th-least run-oriented offense in football (35.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Dolphins.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are expected by the predictive model to run just 64.0 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
Tua Tagovailoa has averaged a measly 1.7 rush attempts per game this year, one of the smallest rates in the NFL when it comes to QBs (24th percentile).
When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, New York's collection of LBs has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

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