Treylon Burks Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Treylon Burks

NFL · Player Props

Treylon Burks

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 3, 2023 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Treylon Burks Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Tennessee Titans offensive approach to skew 1.1% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
A passing game script is implied by the Titans being a -3-point underdog in this game.
Treylon Burks has notched significantly more air yards this season (72.0 per game) than he did last season (60.0 per game).
The Steelers defense has yielded the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (182.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Pittsburgh's safety corps has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Titans to pass on 50.8% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Titans.
Treylon Burks has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this year, playing on 70.7% of snaps compared to just 50.6% last year.
Treylon Burks's 16.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year shows an impressive diminishment in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 39.0 mark.
Treylon Burks's 41.0% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a significant decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 63.7% mark.

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