Treylon Burks Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Treylon Burks

NFL · Player Props

Treylon Burks

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Treylon Burks Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (+105/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.4% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Treylon Burks to garner 6.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among WRs.
Treylon Burks has earned a colossal 28.7% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 84th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 7th-least pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 59.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans O-line ranks as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Treylon Burks has been among the worst wideouts in football at generating extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 1st percentile.

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