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Treylon Burks

Treylon Burks Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans

Treylon Burks Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+296/-521).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +302 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +296.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Titans are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

The Tennessee Titans have run the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.

The Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded the 7th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL to wide receivers: 1.15 per game since the start of last season.

The Indianapolis Colts safeties project as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

The Tennessee Titans offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.3%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (62.3%).

The Tennessee Titans O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

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