Treylon Burks Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Treylon Burks

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:40 PM UTC

Analysis

Treylon Burks Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+296/-521).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -491 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -521.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Tennessee Titans have called the 7th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 64.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Treylon Burks to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game near the end zone this week (16.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (0.0% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has surrendered the 9th-highest Completion% in the NFL (67.6%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (67.6%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tennessee Titans have been faced with a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace among all games this week, averaging 27.47 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has conceded the 4th-least TDs through the air in the league to wideouts: 0.74 per game since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.