Treylon Burks Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Treylon Burks

WR · Tennessee Titans

Receiving TD

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

Treylon Burks Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+285/-492).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -448 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -492.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Treylon Burks to be a more important option in his offense's passing game near the goal line this week (17.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.5% in games he has played).
Treylon Burks has received a colossal 23.9% of his offense's air yards this year: 75th percentile among wide receivers.
Treylon Burks's 44.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 76th percentile for WRs.
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.58 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the slowest in the league since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.7 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Treylon Burks grades out in the 1st percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.