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Trey Palmer

Trey Palmer Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

Trey Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Buccaneers as the 9th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 132.5 total plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week.

The projections expect Trey Palmer to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack this week (14.7% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.5% in games he has played).

The Falcons pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (72.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (72.8%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Trey Palmer's pass-catching performance worsened this season, totaling just 1.2 adjusted receptions vs 2.2 last season.

Trey Palmer comes in as one of the most unreliable receivers in football, catching a mere 57.4% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 15th percentile among WRs

As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's group of safeties has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 8th-best in football.

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