Trey Palmer Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Trey Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Trey Palmer

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Trey Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 61.2% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers offensive scheme to tilt 4.3% more towards the rushing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
Opposing teams have played at the 10th-slowest pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Buccaneers defense this year, averaging 28.03 seconds per play.
Trey Palmer comes in as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football, catching a measly 56.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 15th percentile among wideouts
The Indianapolis Colts safeties rank as the 4th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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