Trey Palmer Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Trey Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Trey Palmer

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

Trey Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-154/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +118 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Buccaneers ranks as the 9th-best in football this year.
The Titans pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (74.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (74.6%).
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Tennessee's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in football.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive strategy to tilt 4.8% more towards running than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 62.5 total plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 56.8 plays per game.
With a feeble 57.5% Adjusted Catch% (19th percentile) this year, Trey Palmer stands as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league among wide receivers.

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