Trey Palmer Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Trey Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Trey Palmer

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Trey Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 61.5% of their plays: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The model projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive blueprint to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Dave Canales now calling the plays.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year (just 56.7 per game on average).
With a bad 55.0% Adjusted Completion Rate (25th percentile) this year, Trey Palmer stands among the most hard-handed receivers in football among WRs.
With a poor 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Trey Palmer has been among the leading WRs in the NFL in football in space.
This year, the imposing Texans pass defense has surrendered the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing WRs: a meager 3.6 YAC.

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