Trey Palmer Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Trey Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Trey Palmer

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 3:51 AM EST

Analysis

Trey Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Atlanta's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 5th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.
With a feeble 56.8% Adjusted Completion% (10th percentile) this year, Trey Palmer ranks among the worst possession receivers in the NFL among wideouts.
With a feeble 5.4 adjusted yards per target (5th percentile) this year, Trey Palmer rates among the weakest WRs in the NFL in football.
With a bad 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Trey Palmer rates as one of the leading wide receivers in the game in the NFL in picking up extra yardage.

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