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Trey McBride Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-125/-105).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -125.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may suffer.The model projects Trey McBride to earn 7.5 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to tight ends.Trey McBride has been a more integral piece of his offense's passing game this season (25.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (20.0%).Trey McBride comes in as one of the best pass-game tight ends this year, averaging an excellent 5.6 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.This year, the poor Chargers pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 80.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The predictive model expects the Cardinals as the 6th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The predictive model expects the Cardinals to call the fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.The Arizona Cardinals have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 53.5 plays per game.As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Los Angeles's LB corps has been great this year, ranking as the 7th-best in football.
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