Trey McBride Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Trey McBride

NFL · Player Props

Trey McBride

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots · Week 15, 2024

Updated Dec 15, 2024 9:16 PM EST

Analysis

Trey McBride Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
Trey McBride has run fewer routes this season (90.3% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (62.7%).
In this week's contest, Trey McBride is projected by the predictive model to place in the 99th percentile among tight ends with 9.3 targets.
Trey McBride's 6.6 adjusted catches per game this season indicates a significant improvement in his receiving skills over last season's 4.7 mark.
Trey McBride's 79.9% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates a meaningful progression in his pass-catching talent over last season's 76.3% mark.

Favors Under

With a 6-point advantage, the Cardinals are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 55.8% of their downs: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Cardinals are expected by the projections to call just 63.1 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The 8th-fewest plays in football have been called by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a mere 55.3 per game on average).
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Patriots, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 32.5 per game) this year.

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