Trey McBride Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Trey McBride

NFL · Player Props

Trey McBride

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Trey McBride Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Our trusted projections expect Trey McBride to notch 7.3 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to TEs.
The model projects Trey McBride to be a more important option in his team's passing attack in this week's contest (22.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.5% in games he has played).
Trey McBride has been one of the top TE receiving threats this year, averaging an impressive 3.1 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.

Favors Under

The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.4% pass rate.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the importance it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Cardinals grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's collection of safeties has been very good this year, profiling as the 9th-best in the NFL.

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