Trey McBride Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Trey McBride

NFL · Player Props

Trey McBride

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Trey McBride Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals may pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) since they be starting backup QB Clayton Tune.
The Cardinals are a big 13.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect Trey McBride to accrue 7.2 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The model projects Trey McBride to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack in this week's contest (22.7% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (13.5% in games he has played).
Trey McBride has posted many more air yards this season (30.0 per game) than he did last season (16.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Cardinals feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Right now, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in football (55.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cardinals.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the model to call only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.0 per game) this year.
The Cardinals O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

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