Trey McBride Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Trey McBride

NFL · Player Props

Trey McBride

TE · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Trey McBride Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 49.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
The projections expect Trey McBride to notch 8.1 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
While Trey McBride has earned 16.8% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Arizona's passing offense in this week's game at 24.5%.
Trey McBride has accumulated many more air yards this year (36.0 per game) than he did last year (16.0 per game).
Trey McBride's 41.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season illustrates a significant gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 29.0 rate.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Cardinals offensive strategy to skew 2.4% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
Right now, the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Arizona Cardinals.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projection model to run only 64.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Arizona offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all air attack metrics across the board.

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