Trey Lance TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Trey Lance

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:25 PM EST

Analysis

Trey Lance TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+175/-240).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in the NFL against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season (73.8%).
The Seattle Seahawks safeties project as the 4th-worst group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a giant 8.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 44.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 4th-least pass-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 54.3% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 120.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.8 plays per game.