Trey Lance Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Trey Lance

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Trey Lance Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-160/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Trey Lance to total 9.6 carries in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Trey Lance to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this week (29.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.1% in games he has played).
Trey Lance has grinded out 25.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (88th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to call the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 60.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.5 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on just 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The San Francisco 49ers have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.