Trey Lance Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Trey Lance

NFL · Player Props

Trey Lance

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Trey Lance Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+204/-307).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -301 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -307.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a giant 8.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 4th-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 45.7% red zone run rate.
The San Francisco 49ers have utilized some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their plays since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 120.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Trey Lance to be a much smaller piece of his offense's running game near the end zone this week (17.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (25.0% in games he has played).
Trey Lance has run for 0.00 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the smallest figures in the league among quarterbacks (1st percentile).
The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles grade out as the best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

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