Trey Lance Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Trey Lance

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Carries

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Trey Lance Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-169/+123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ +104 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -169.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a giant 8.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Trey Lance to accrue 8.6 rush attempts in this contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Trey Lance to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game this week (25.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.0% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 120.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.8 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks defensive tackles grade out as the best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.