Trevor Siemian TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Trevor Siemian

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

New York Jets vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Trevor Siemian TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-195/+142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +157 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears will be starting backup quarterback Trevor Siemian in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Chicago Bears O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Chicago Bears have risked going for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Trevor Siemian to attempt 19.3 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.