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Trevor Siemian

Trevor Siemian Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 12

New York Jets vs Chicago Bears

Trevor Siemian Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+125/-166).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Chicago Bears have risked going for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chicago Bears will be starting backup quarterback Trevor Siemian in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.6 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Trevor Siemian to garner 1.5 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.

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