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Trevor Siemian

Trevor Siemian Completions
Player Prop Week 12

New York Jets vs Chicago Bears

Trevor Siemian Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+103/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -134.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chicago Bears will be starting backup quarterback Trevor Siemian in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

The Chicago Bears O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Chicago Bears have risked going for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 6th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.6 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Trevor Siemian to attempt 19.3 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.

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